Defining the main theme of 2006?

Interesting post by Stirling Newberry at BOPNews.com regarding the true motivation behind Lieberman’s loss…

This race isn’t really about the war – it is about lying. People feel they have been lied to – about the economy, about how sound the housing market is – one rural route was packed with for sale signs for homes – but it is the war that they have proof positive they were lied about. They want someone who can stand up to Bush – who is not “the President” but “that President” – and someone who won’t lie to them any more. Lieberman’s campaign, desperate to keep the election close, or even win under depressed turn out – has lied about Lamont’s past, about his own record on the war – and now about their site being hacked. (my emphasis)

Interesting point. I wonder if the anger that is tapped here is truly from the national feeling – or a personal frustration at Lieberman (after the general impression of inevitability of his re-election). As I read the previous blog posts, I see very little extolling support for Lieberman, and a lot of people expressing their anger at him. With the blogosphere leading and the mainstream media reporting on the Cinderella story of Ned Lamont and drubbing of Lieberman, is it any wonder why he became the focus of the Dems anger at this time?

Integrity is a tough quality to measure – especially when you consider that it is not measured by the winds, but by a personal code. I wonder – does Joe actually think that the war is good or is it support for the Administration policies? The people that I know, who know him personal, speak of his incredible integrity and the fact that he would not be so duplicitous. His belief in the country and the threats that exist lead me to believe that he is strong on his convictions, even when faced with a vocal group of constituents who disagree with him.

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Ummm – Lieberman website crashing?

Interesting – learning about Lieberman’s website going down – yes, you could potentially call this “hacking”, but when you are under a large amount of traffic – as long as the traffic is coming from many different hosts, this would not be counted as a Denial of Service (DoS) attack.

Let me see “the facts” – which, by the way, are snipets of information gleaned from the blogosphere

  • The Leiberman website suffered from delays on Monday night and crashed by 7am Tuesday morning (Stanford Advocate)
  • According to Dan Geary, there were numerous requests for “web pages, FTP files, and emails” which swamped the server. (MSNBC)
  • The Joe2006.com server was on a shared machine which hosted 70+ other sites (DailyKos)
  • The Joe2006.com server more than likely was on a low-cost solution that could have had a large bandwidth allocation (gleaned from multiple blogs and from MSNBC)
  • Joe2006.com email server is hosted at the GoDaddy/SecureServer service provider (DNS Stuff)
  • The Lieberman/Lamont primary was the most contested race on Monday/Tuesday which would have had a large amount of traffic on Monday and Tuesday (see previous post about web traffic)
  • Today, the Joe2006.com website is hosted at a different IP address (68.178.232.95) as I gleaned from pinging the server

So what do I see? Actually, not enough for a conclusion. Simply – I would want to see the server logs on machine hosted at IP address 69.56.129.130 (the original site of the Joe2996.com site). Dan suggests that he got a deluge of FTP (port 21), emails (port 113/25) and web requests (port 80). Since the machine will track via logs. If there is an attack, it would have logs to show for it.

My guess is that the server was having problems because shared servers are reknowned for having limited number of web clients to handle traffic. No amount of bandwidth can address not enough web server processes to handle the enormity of requests. Just this week, one of my clients (www.goodnightburbank.com) just launched a new episode of their show. Interestingly – we have over 100GB of download purchased, but the site would not load for many people. What I discovered was the virtual/dedicated server only had a max of 10 http clients available for spawning and had no growth for increased need. Once I increased the settings, I was able to handle the enormity of the requests and the site was running smoothly once again.

What? What are you saying?
Best way to explain is using a supermarket analogy. When the supermarket is in normal operation, two cashiers are usually enough to handle the number of customers – and if each customer has ten items, then there is a set amount of time to go through each of the items and handle the transaction. And if the items are all the same, small size, then the time can be estimated pretty consistantly. But what happens when suddenly a hurricane is announced and everyone comes into the supermarket to purchase items. And not only toothbrushes or sliced luncheon meat, but big bags of dog food and gallons of water?

Now the store has only a set number of employees in the store, and a subset of them can actually run the cash registers. You can see that even though there might be an increase in throughput by the cashiers, the large number of requests would queue up and come to a standstill with long lines filling the interior of the store. Now add one more behaviour – after 10 minutes of waiting, people begin to leave the store in anger and disgust.

What I have just described is what happens between a web browser and a web server, if the web server is the cashier bank and the web browser is a single customer. The groceries are the various components of the webpage that are being requested by your web browser. In the case of the Joe2006.com homepage, there were 16 images that were separate from the actual page and unknown number of background images that also needed to be loaded. On top of this, the code running the website was not simply a web server – it was also a dynamically generated website which ran PHP (which is notoriously known as a processor hog). And, even if they did try to switch over to a new server which could handle the processing – the DNS timeout (telling the computers on the Internet to go to a different machine) would not have propogated (read: happened) in a time. Am I surprised the website ran slow? Not at all.

How to prove who did what?
Get the server logs. Real simple – and if the machine crapped out – it will be because the traffic load. If there were strange FTP requests or email requests, that would prove something was up. And, you can tell if they switched servers to a better machine to handle the load, because other DNS servers will know when the information changes for the IP address and the TTL (time-to-live: how often it checks for changes iin the IP address). But my gut tells me that they were suffering from a underpowered server – not too little bandwidth.

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And just what is the impact of TV on the web?

One of the questions I have been asked in the past two years was what it was like in the trenches when the campaign suddenly began to take off. As I have written in the archives, the change was astounding – but none so remarkable as what occurred on the night of the 19th. As all know, Kerry pulled off an incredible feat in winning the primary in Iowa – but what is not known is how difficult it had been to get Kerry to recognize the power of his own voice when helping the Internet side of the campaign. The image below is a data set I have talked about in the past, and now feel comfortable enough to share since this lesson is becoming more commonplace than before.

The Impact of Kerry saying JohnKerry.com on National Television

(click to see larger image)

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Are you using the Internet as effectively as Hillary?

After going through my candiate emails (and trust me, there are a lot of them), I began to evaluate the rationale of the content (similar to what I did for the English eCampaigning in 2005). In going through the emails, I began to notice a trend that should be noted such that the other candidates are better equipped for the upcoming online battle ahead. To this end, take a look at this quick and dirty assessment of emails I have been keeping track of:

HillaryClinton.com
One of the interesting things about the frequency of the emails coming out, is that their specficity of action has become more targeted. In the last three months, Hillary (and her staff have) discussed:

All in the past three months. And note, almost no request for money for her – only for Mike Arcuri.

JohnKerry.com? In comparison, in the past three months, Kerry has sent:

  • Requests to contribute to races he supports – which goes back to his contribution server
  • Sign a petition for the Kerry-Feingold amendment
  • Cheerleading emails ending with “Make a Contribution”
  • Call your Senator on Iraq – with a “report back feature” on the page
  • Support Enviromental Candidates fundraiser – back to his contribution server

And what about the other candidates? Well, Joe Biden’s “Unite Our States” has:

  • Asked for contributions
  • Wished the list a Happy July 4th
  • Talked about his recent trip to Iraq
  • Told me when he would be on “Meet the Press”
  • and asked me to read his speech, download a plan and then sign his petition on Energy Security

Why do you act?
Why the analysis? Consider the trends above – note that for every issue discussed, if you were to “sign the petition” or do the action requests, do you think your action results in an action within the campaign? Or are you saving the staff time and energy by keying in your details and signalling the campaign your interest “hot buttons”?

One of the greatest challenges we faced during the primaries of Kerry Campaign was how to inspire people to donate via online donations. In a crowded field of ten candidates and a front-runner found in the wintery hills of Vermont, we were frustrated with equal parts of growing our list and successfully burning it out with continued fundraising emails that were not very effective. With our limited budget and dwindling timeframe, we discovered that we had to optimize our email performance with the limited services and tools we had. So what is happening now?

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The Emails Keep On Comin’

In the last couple of weeks, I have begun to notice a steady increase of emails from the various players in the 2006 and upcoming 2008 election cycle. Ranging from my frequent email missives from Hillary and John, I am seeing:

  • Russ Feingold – using GetActive to send out emails to get people to sign his petition for healthcare and announcing his new website
  • Evan Bayh – using a Articulated Man-like design to send out emails from his newly revamped website
  • Senator Joe Biden – using a Articulated Man design and GetActive to send out media alerts

Additionally, I get email from:

  • State Senator Rod Smith – running for Florida governor
  • Congressman Jim Davis – Smith’s Democratic primary competitor
  • AG Charlie Crist – Republician front-runner for Florida governor
  • FL Senator Bill Nelson – Senior US Senator for Florida
  • Senator Maria Cantwell – running for Senate in Washington state
  • Former Governor Howard Dean – for the DNC
  • Congressman Rahm Emanuel and Congresswoman Nanci Peloci – for the DCCC
  • My “friends” at the GOP and the RNC
  • Democracy for America, True Majority and MoveOn on the left
  • RightMarch on the right

And so many other players. One thing I noticed is that all (of the Democrats) are beginning to follow the basic premise of emails gained from the Dean campaign. Seen cribbing from the echoDitto site, most are beginning to use this basic format of links in the body and such. But, what seems to be missing from some – and especially from Republicians like AG Crist – is a succinct, engaging narrative that poses a problem that is solved by our involvement. Getting us to engage and invest in the solution makes us stronger supporters in the long run.

I have to give credit to some of the players – like BlueStateDigital (behind the emails from Rod Smith) and Mayfield Strategies (behind the content from Hillary, Cantwell, Casey and others) – they are generating well-written and engaging content. What worries me is that others – like Bayh, Biden and Feingold – who are trying to position themselves for the upcoming fight – are not winning the discourse. They are getting missives out there – but little engagement. Where are the real problems that we could solve with you – the candidates?

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